We may very well be f**ked.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2018/08/06/runaway-climate-change-could-trigger-hothouse-earth-200ft-sea/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2018/08/06/runaway-climate-change-could-trigger-hothouse-earth-200ft-sea/
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LEGO Americana Roadshow: Building Across America I just checked out this traveling exhibition from LEGO and was quite impressed. The scale ... -
Merry Christmas, everyone!
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When we let politics trump science, people are needlessly put in harm's way. http://arstechnica.com/science/2017/01/self-censoring-fears...
We have likely passed the tipping point, but sea level rise will be a slow process, while the "Hothouse" change will be relatively rapid and more difficult for Humanity to adapt to.
ReplyDeleteThe greedy overseers have not heard or understood the phrase "The butterfly effect".
ReplyDeleteParesh Desai Good observation, link provided, if others are interested.
ReplyDeleteen.wikipedia.org - Butterfly effect - Wikipedia
Thanks Mac Baird .
ReplyDeleteYup. And such a stupid thing really, where maybe collectively our species just was not smart enough.
ReplyDeleteJames Harris I would not attribute this situation to collective lack of intelligence, but rather to economic greed on the part of the Fossil Carbon Energy Industrial Complex, that is desperately trying to protect and sustain its >$30 Trillion investment from any competing product.
ReplyDeleteDavid M Schaedler It will take a very long time for all the ice on land to melt, to add 200 ft to the ocean. More likely, we will see a meter or so every 100 years, as average temperature rise accelerates.
ReplyDeleteDavid M Schaedler That involved both Greenland and Antarctica melting, which is happening.
ReplyDeleteSea level rise is merely an inconvenience compared to the rest. I worry about agriculture and the breaking of food supply chains which will break with only one meter'ish of sea level rise, which will quickly render most docks and coastal roads unusable.
ReplyDeleteWild chaotic weather is not an environment in which agriculture can be sustained.
My second huge worry is the crumbing of biodiversity, and mainly what is happening in the oceans that also capture 93% of the heat and are becoming more acidic.
When the oceans die, we die
A. Randomjack Agree, those are the long poles in the tent.
ReplyDeleteA. Randomjack Mac Baird https://weather.com/science/environment/news/sea-level-rise-climate-change-maps-jeffrey-linn
ReplyDeleteMike Hillsgrove I've spent the last 6 years immersed in the climate change issue and mainly the science of it all.
ReplyDeleteI have over 110 articles written on the topic, most of which are science based.
They're in French, but the translator is there if you think it may help.
I have written a few articles on Sea level rise and have a sea level rise simulator somewhere in there too.
leclimatoblogue.blogspot.com - Le Climatoblogue
Mac Baird Agreed. You are right in that the fossil fuel cartel wants to burn the last lump of coal, the last drop of oil before giving up the ghost.
ReplyDeleteWe need a new government, one that works for the welfare of the people, and the future of humanity.
A. Randomjack No matter how you look at it, it's bad, and inevitable.
ReplyDelete634 million people are displaced at 30 feet of sea level rise. That is by 2100. Most of the world lives below 250 feet elevation, most of the cities are coastal.
flood.firetree.net - Flood Maps
Mike Hillsgrove Not only won't they let go of the fossil fuels, they sure don't want to let go of their subsidies.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a corruption feedback loop to me ;^)
theguardian.com - Fossil fuels subsidised by $10m a minute, says IMF | Environment | The Guardian
Mike Hillsgrove Yes, I do know all that, except that I don't know where you got that 30 feet by 2100 from.
ReplyDeleteNever saw that from any scientist.
Not saying it's improbable though... Who really knows?
Catastrophism is counter productive.
We all know, or should know, we will eventually die, bit I'm not going to kill myself, I'd rather do what is most important to me aka inform the people so they have a fighting chance.
Consider taking actions. Check 350.org btw.
riseforclimate.org - September 8: #RiseforClimate Global Day of Action
A. Randomjack Mike Hillsgrove Date: February 12, 2018, Source: University of Colorado at Boulder, Summary: Global sea level rise is not cruising along at a steady rate per year, but rather accelerating a little every year like a driver merging onto a highway. 25 years of satellite data was used to calculate that the rate is increasing by about 0.08 mm/year every year -- which could mean an annual rate of sea level rise of 10 mm/year, or even more, by 2100. That is about 80 to 100 cm, if the acceleration rate remains constant. I am in the camp that expects the acceleration rate to climb.
ReplyDeletesciencedaily.com - Sea level rise accelerating: acceleration in 25-year satellite sea level record
Mac Baird #MISI and #MICI aren''t from #Disney :)
ReplyDeleteA few years ago, I made a graph of sea level rise based on current melt rates and the assumption tjey will continue to double every 7 years.
That graph is not science, just a hypothesis.
Conclusion is that Greenland will have totally melted before 2100 with and additional 4 to 6 meters from Antarctica.
That's the °engineers methodology» which is not science.
Nevertheless. the only scientific certainty (general consensus) we got is now 2.5 meters by 2100, «and likely more».
This aside, what really worries me is agriculture. Food and water are essentials, as for sea level rise, it is a devastating inconvenience.
The other most worrisome aspect IMO is refugees and conflicts.
youtube.com - This new Antarctic Discovery will affect You massively
Mike Hillsgrove Mac Baird I also watch almost every one of these videos.
ReplyDeleteI must add the guy who makes these videos does a very good job.
youtube.com - Climate & Extreme Weather News #132 (1st-6th August 2018)
A. Randomjack Looks like fairly decent science to me.
ReplyDeleteAntarctic melting is accelerating more rapidly. There is one more thing to consider and that is the weight of ice suddenly removed from the top of a floating land mass.
Consider this, the ice in Antarctica is a mile thick. The continent of Antarctica has
"The mean thickness of the Antarctic ice sheet is 2.16 km; the maximum known thickness of the ice sheet is 4776 m (Terre Adélie). "
" It covers an area of almost 14 million square kilometres (5.4 million square miles) and contains 26.5 million cubic kilometres (6,400,000 cubic miles) of ice. Approximately 61 percent of all fresh water on the Earth is held in the Antarctic ice sheet, an amount equivalent to about 58 m of sea-level rise."
What is the weight of this ice? All land masses float on a sea of magma. What happens when you remove all that ice from the top of one tiny spot? Antarctica will rise, as will Greenland and when it does magma will shift to fill in the pocket. Simple hydraulics, one piston goes up. another goes down.
What this translates to is massive earth changes, earthquakes in 10+ territory, and a relative sea level rise greater than what is predicted.
Salt water fish evolved that way, what happens when you dump that much fresh water into the oceans? Desalination of the oceans changes the viscosity of the water, changes it's thermal properties, changhes how currents work. Already we are seeing the collapse of the Atlantic conveyor. What happens to Europe when that happens?
A dead ocean, continents in crisis, all because we wanted to drive fast, live cheap, and never considered the consequences of what we were doing.
Something needs to be done before it's too late.
ReplyDeleteIrene Martinez It is already too late. Far too late. The earths CO2 level is now 408 ppm and we are still adding more each year, in the order of 40 gigitons each year.
ReplyDeleteco2.earth - Global Carbon Emissions
We have also destroyed the ability of the oceans to buffer the CO2, and cut down the rain forests that could have removed it. Any solution now would take decades to implement, and take centuries to have an effect.
We are looking at extinction, and your governments and your corporations could not care less as long as they get re-elected and quarterly profits increase.
Irene Martinez I absolutely agree.
ReplyDeleteThe 1st step is to talk about the climate problem.
I mainly stick to facts, but storytelling and understanding why some are in denial (a complex issue) I read about yesterday. We all have different skils, but together, we have all it needs to communicate and act on climate.
As Michael Mann puts it, there is no single tipping point, it's more like a mine fields he says.
This is a good starting point. 350.org is a reputable organization I'd recommend.
If information you want
There are some reputable G+ communities I could point you to as well as a few you tube channels, or blogs...
I've been attracted to this problem by Physics in 2012, and by coincidence of course. This is not in the mainstream much, and was virtually absent in 2012.
In the 1990's, I had heard they would one day in some distant future, be able to farm oranges in Quebec on mainstream.
Climate change wasn't on my mind
riseforclimate.org - September 8: #RiseforClimate Global Day of Action
Mike Hillsgrove Sorry, but you can't prove it's too late.
ReplyDeleteThat is as counter productive as selling hopium or denialism.
It may be too late to keep living like we dos, but it's not too late to avoid the worse.
But yes, things will evidently get bad.
What do you do when you drive and think it's too late to hit the brakes? Sit back and enjoy the ride?
What matters most is not what others do, but what we do
A. Randomjack And what proof do you want?
ReplyDeleteWith each degree of warmth, bad things happen. Unless we can reverse the dumping of CO2 into the atmosphere the warming will accelerate, the melting will accelerate, the death of the ocean will accelerate.
There is nothing happening today that is reversing, or even slowing down the dumping of CO2, to reverse the use of fossil fuels, replacing our energy infrastructure, nothing is planned in any acceptable time frame and at the current rate of growth we are looking at 600 ppm by 2100.
If you fall off a cliff, there is no proof that you will be hurt until you hit the bottom. The approaching rocks are a bad sign. Without a parachute or something to grab onto there is no hope of avoiding the inevitable conclusion. That is exactly the position we are in now with the environment. The time to work on the problem isn't when you reach terminal velocity.
By 2100 there is no way to avoid 600 ppm, and that translates to 6C and that is beyond the extinction point.
thinkprogress.org - Science stunner: On our current emissions path, CO2 levels in 2100 will hit levels last seen when the Earth was 29°F (16°C) hotter
Mike Hillsgrove We are in 2018, not 2100.
ReplyDeleteThe biggest uncertainty in climate change is what us humans will or won't do.
I am well aware of scientific studies on the worse case scenario and the impacts it may have.
I am also aware we could be self sufficient and perhaps with solar and wind alone.
I do know what we wil or won't do in the nxt decade or 2, will alter the climate system for 10's of thousands of years to come.
I also know it takes 10 million years for animal Life to re-emerge.
We are our own meteor. Thing is we can alter it's collision course with a mass extinction, to which some smart humans may survive in some isolated lucky spot. We nearly went extinct (aka genetic bottlenecks) on at least one occasion during which our population is estimated to be about 600 inter-related individuals says genetics.
See, I spent the last 6 years on Earth and about 30 previous ones out there in the Cosmos, sizing up the Universe :)
Mike Hillsgrove Ah Found it :)
ReplyDeleteWhen I 1st came to climate change, I knew the physics were right because one of the 1st thing I read was about the greenhouse effect at the quantum level.
Vibration modes of certain molecules causing IR diffraction.
But I had to look into human behavior, physics is only half of the story.
Well I wanted to show you this article, but 404
The Top 10 Jobs That Attract Psychopaths
https://www.forbes.com/search/?q=top%20jobs%20attract%20psychopaths#55d43969279f
CEO is top of the list, I should have saved that somewhere...
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/t5tpQk8qjQCzvcx9nxxHodwhklu6hwpG1Gj4s9X-gRf3pdO7BzmUVJ8TsUzAgmxh8hhiossrbfn5TA=s0
A. Randomjack To put it bluntly, there is no path forward for humanity that avoids eventual extinction due to our use of fossil fuels. Even if we stop ALL fossil fuel use TODAY. Even if we stop cutting down the rain forests this very minute, even if we all are whisked away to some magical fairy land where even our breath is scrubbed, there is sufficient CO2 already in the atmosphere to take us well past 6C. The biosphere collapses at about 4C. Our BEST CASE scenario has us at at 4.5C IF and ONLY IF everyone does what they say they are doing.
ReplyDeleteThere is no scenario where the cartels run all the governments that the actions required now to save humanity can happen. It's just too late.
We would need to build hundreds of thousands of CO2 scrubbing facilities all over the globe while we eliminate all CO2 use, and since you can't make a profit doing this it won't happen.
The atmospheric retention of CO2 is about 1700 years. That means that it can't happen naturally in time.
Mike Hillsgrove A. Randomjack Last year, the Carnegie Institution for Science study looked at the possibility of repairing the climate. Some comments follow. The bottom line is Humanity may have to be more adaptable or move around to follow a desired or familiar climate.
ReplyDelete"As far as I know, this is the first study to try to model using two different geoengineering approaches simultaneously to try to improve the overall fit of the technology," Caldeira explained.
The good news is that their simulations showed that if both methods are deployed in concert, it would decrease warming to pre-industrial levels, as desired, and on a global level rainfall would also stay at pre-industrial levels. But the bad news is that while global average climate was largely restored, substantial differences remained locally, with some areas getting much wetter and other areas getting much drier.
"The same amount of rain fell around the globe in our models, but it fell in different places, which could create a big mismatch between what our economic infrastructure expects and what it will get," Caldeira added. "More complicated geoengineering solutions would likely do a bit better, but the best solution is simply to stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere."
We always do the right thing, after all the other options have been exhausted.
sciencedaily.com - Could 'cocktail geoengineering' save the climate?
Mac Baird Thanks, this will be useful :)
ReplyDeleteI saw this appropriate quote lately
https://plus.google.com/116233864719627778953/posts/Xh9GuvGyVCs
Ao you doing
ReplyDeleteA. Randomjack Another quote for those without direction.
ReplyDelete"If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there." ----- Unknown
Mac Baird I recently found out by who it was..
ReplyDeleteBeen listening to Wes Cecil's philosophy lectures this summer and heard about Lao Tzu there.
You can find him on the net, he has a website, wescecil.com
Great and non boring introduction to philosophy, a topic I knew little about.
brainyquote.com - Lao Tzu Quotes